More signs that DOGE is coming up short. Remember they were targeting $2 trillion in savings. Deficits are still too big. (link to video)
Biotech seems promising for patient capital, though I haven’t done the work yet. (@JerryCap)
30Y getting unruly. At the same time gold is making new all time highs. Bond market might force Trump’s hand. (@goodalexander)
Bond vol spiked this week as the long end sold off and investors bought the short end. (BCA)
Credit entered the crisis in a dangerous place. Absolute yields are high but spreads across the credit spectrum started from 5 year tights. (Pitchbook)
The downside of pissing the world off, they own ~25% of US markets and may consider selling. (Apollo)
Banks appear to be playing defense. The highest share of refi rejections in 12 years.(@Barchart)
US L/S hedge funds are positioned the most defensive since 2016. (@zerohedge)
If the US administration creates a recession, it could mean there is more pain to come. I think the printing press comes out before we get here. (John Authers)
Energy and Tech are the most oversold sectors. (@dailychartbook)
The post covid construction boom is slowing as units are completed and new starts are beginning to slow. (Pitchbook)
With oil below $60, we are levels that begin to pressure oil producers as they can’t cover capital and dividends. At these levels, there will be no “Drill baby drill.” (@Josh_Young_1)
The hedge fund, BlueCrest has been on an epic run. (@nishantkumar07)
