Coinbase, PLTR, SHOP earnings breakdown, as well as markets for the FOMC week

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Hi there!

Let’s see what is upcoming in the markets this upcoming week, and what happened this week quickly before the week begins!

Looking at last week’s markets, the markets calmed down as earnings began, with S&P 500 up +3.2% last week, powered by strong earnings results from MSFT and META. Here is what that looked like in the heatmaps:

Once again, Trump news keeps happening, so we made it simple to follow Trump posts, and news. For example, you can see the full tariff breakdown here at unusualwhales.com/trump-tracker. On that page we added a way for you to alert yourself on any TruthSocial post, without having to create a TruthSocial account.

It should be said, before the 90 day tariff paused, we highlighted numerous unusual trading, so much so, we made a post about it. You can find that here:

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Now to earnings. Let’s break down COIN, Coinbase earnings, before we break down all other company earnings. Coinbase’s earnings have a full breakdown on Unusual Whales at https://unusualwhales.com/stock/COIN/earnings.

COINBASE earnings have been easier to predict than expected, but it generally has a runup into earnings, and then it runs slightly down DIRECTLY most days after earnings, ut then moves up, with on average being up 8% 20 days after the earnings. Let’s dig in.

Over the last 12 quarters, COIN has incredibly well-defined earnings with large implied moves, but mostly range bound, with market markers being very good at pricing the last moves – the last moves falling within the expected price move 8 of the last 11 times! At the moment, the Implied Move (expected move) for COIN is quite high, at 6.97% (or $14.28 in dollar terms). This is actually below average for Coin’s expected moves, so be careful of a surprise move (often on smaller ranges COIN has moved significantly outside of its ranges, especially the last two earnings).

You can see that overwhelmingly COIN has improving in EPS and financials recently. Is COIN tariff agnostic? Probably, but with current market volatility one can never know.

How would straddles have performed if you took them? Because Coinbase actually FALLS after earnings, even if vol expectations are aligned with results, the one day short straddle performs much better than the one week short straddle (meaning if vol makes the move you want, SELL!). So the one day short straddle worked 9 of 13 times, but the one WEEK short straddle worked only 8/13 times. As a result, if COIN moves against you immediately (say you are on the long side and it goes down, you sold some puts or spreads), COIN has a tendency not to recover from those moves MOST times until twenty days out.

If you are buying direction, generally up has worked in the longrange, but COIN has had volatile earnings (to the upside) so be careful with your wings, a broken butterfly might be effective here. Ratio spreads might work here, or selling diagonals might be a good idea! Generally, because volatility is lower than normal, be careful of larger moves not priced in. You can see more option strategies at Unusual Whales and our options profit calculator by clicking here.

Here is an example straddle, which you can find here: https://unusualwhales.com/options-profit-calculator/short_straddle/COIN/-COIN250516C00205000,-COIN250516P00205000

You can once again see more earnings and full options and equities history at unusualwhales.com/stock/COIN/earnings

Here are the upcoming earnings this week, including the expected moves, EPS mean estimates, and notable details. See more at unusualwhales.com/earnings.

Below you can see all company earnings at https://unusualwhales.com/earnings?formats=table&order=report_date&order_direction=asc&min_options_vol=500

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) reports after the close with an expected move of 13.1%. EPS is estimated at $0.08. Stock volume is 95.5 million, and options volume is 1.13 million contracts.

• Lucid Group (LCID) reports after the close with an expected move of 13.4%. EPS is estimated at -$0.30. Stock volume is 30.5 million, and options volume is 217,000 contracts.

• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) reports after the close with an expected move of 5.4%. EPS is estimated at $3.64. Stock volume is 2.16 million, and options volume is 47,000 contracts.

• Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) reports after the close with an expected move of 7.3%. EPS is estimated at $1.52. Stock volume is 2.21 million, and options volume is 36,000 contracts.

Tuesday, May 7

• Shopify (SHOP) reports before the open with an expected move of 12.3%. EPS is estimated at $0.17. Stock volume is 11.8 million, and options volume is 334,000 contracts.

• The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reports before the open with an expected move of 6.3%. EPS is estimated at $1.10. Stock volume is 10.4 million, and options volume is 287,000 contracts.

• International Game Technology (IGT) reports before the open with an expected move of 6.5%. EPS is estimated at $0.45. Stock volume is 1.23 million, and options volume is 1,700 contracts.

• Rivian Automotive (RIVN) reports after the close with an expected move of 11.6%. EPS is estimated at -$1.15. Stock volume is 34.3 million, and options volume is 335,000 contracts.

• Twilio (TWLO) reports after the close with an expected move of 13.4%. EPS is estimated at $0.59. Stock volume is 3.34 million, and options volume is 93,000 contracts.

• Akamai Technologies (AKAM) reports after the close with an expected move of 6.6%. EPS is estimated at $1.50. Stock volume is 1.35 million, and options volume is 6,500 contracts.

• Toast (TOST) reports after the close with an expected move of 13.4%. EPS is estimated at -$0.15. Stock volume is 8.49 million, and options volume is 34,000 contracts.

• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) reports after the close with an expected move of 14.7%. EPS is estimated at $6.56. Stock volume is 7.86 million, and options volume is 252,000 contracts.

• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) reports after the close with an expected move of 4.3%. EPS is estimated at $0.64. Stock volume is 8.06 million, and options volume is 108,000 contracts.

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) reports after the close with an expected move of 11.5%. EPS is estimated at $0.55. Stock volume is 1.58 million, and options volume is 87,000 contracts.

Wednesday, May 8

• Uber Technologies (UBER) reports before the open with an expected move of 7.5%. EPS is estimated at -$0.24. Stock volume is 17.9 million, and options volume is 286,000 contracts.

• Sony Group (SONY) reports before the open with an expected move of 5.3%. EPS is estimated at $0.87. Stock volume is 733,000, and options volume is 1,400 contracts.

• Arm Holdings (ARM) reports after the close with an expected move of 12.5%. EPS is estimated at $0.30. Stock volume is 6.86 million, and options volume is 151,000 contracts.

• Unity Software (U) reports after the close with an expected move of 12.4%. EPS is estimated at -$0.12. Stock volume is 6.52 million, and options volume is 65,000 contracts.

• Trade Desk (TTD) reports after the close with an expected move of 10.1%. EPS is estimated at $0.22. Stock volume is 3.63 million, and options volume is 81,000 contracts.

• Toast (TOST) also appears scheduled again — please confirm which date is correct.

Thursday, May 9

• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) reports before the open with an expected move of 8.9%. EPS is estimated at -$0.24. Stock volume is 13.9 million, and options volume is 58,000 contracts.

• Plug Power (PLUG) reports before the open with an expected move of 15.2%. EPS is estimated at -$0.32. Stock volume is 31.1 million, and options volume is 123,000 contracts.

• AppLovin (APP) reports after the close with an expected move of 11.4%. EPS is estimated at $0.68. Stock volume is 3.81 million, and options volume is 59,000 contracts.

• Illumina (ILMN) reports after the close with an expected move of 8.7%. EPS is estimated at $0.04. Stock volume is 1.38 million, and options volume is 6,600 contracts.

• Coinbase Global (COIN) reports after the close with an expected move of 11.6%. EPS is estimated at $1.09. Stock volume is 11.8 million, and options volume is 298,000 contracts.

• Celsius Holdings (CELH) reports after the close with an expected move of 12.3%. EPS is estimated at $0.31. Stock volume is 2.64 million, and options volume is 35,000 contracts.

Here are the economic events for the week (reminder, we added a Trump calendar seen here: https://unusualwhales.com/trump-tracker)

Here is the economic calendar this week. More at unusualwhales.com/economic-calendar:

• 6:45 AM PDT – S&P Final U.S. Services PMI (April)
  Final read on the services sector’s performance for April; a reading above 50 indicates expansion.

• 7:00 AM PDT – ISM Services Index (April)
  A critical gauge of the services economy—covers employment, prices, and business activity.

• 11:00 AM PDT – FOMC Meeting & Interest Rate Decision
  A pivotal Federal Reserve policy update; markets will watch for any rate changes or guidance.

• 11:30 AM PDT – Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference
  Remarks will be closely parsed for clues on inflation, growth, and future rate policy.

• 12:00 PM PDT – Consumer Credit (March)
  Shows growth in household debt—important for assessing consumer borrowing and spending strength.

• Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference are the week’s most market-sensitive events.

• Services data on Monday will help validate trends seen in last week’s jobs report.

• Thursday’s productivity and jobless claims provide insight into labor cost dynamics and recession risks.

Once again, we realized a post and youtube video on the unusual trading on Trump’s tariffs, which You can also see the YouTube Video Breakdown of these trades by clicking here!

Thank you as always for reading!!

NOTE: This post is not financial advice. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do research before any trade. Do not use this information for investment decisions. Check terms on site for full terms. Agree to terms before considering this information.