(Any views expressed below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)
Firstly, congratulations to our brothers and sisters in the analog world—gold is trading above $3K for the first time ever. Bitcoin, you’re up next.
This is incredibly bullish to me. Normally, it’s hard to remember trends and past cycles because one year in this space feels like seven. But one thing I do know—Bitcoin tends to lag gold, and then, just when people start doubting it, it rips past, leaving gold in the dust (much to Peter Schiff’s dismay).
We’re coming for that #1 spot.
I’ve been thinking a lot about potential catalysts that could take us to new all-time highs this year. Sometimes, the most obvious one is staring you right in the face.
The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is real. That’s already a paradigm shift. But what’s not priced in yet is the fact that the government is now authorized to acquire more Bitcoin through budget-neutral means.
For years, people debated if the U.S. would ever touch Bitcoin as a sovereign asset. Now, not only are they holding it, but they’re actively figuring out how to get more — without spending taxpayer money.
And the market sold off on this news. I know, tariffs, and a whole host of other mid-cycle uncertainties has sent everything down over the last couple of weeks…
It’s classic short-term thinking. This is exactly the type of once-in-a-cycle correction that looks obvious in hindsight. You think we’re going to look back at this moment — after the U.S. committed to holding Bitcoin — and say this was a great time to sell?
I don’t.
I think this is one of those times where the fear is overblown, and the smart money knows it.
Here’s what we’re seeing at the desk:
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Very little selling—the people who wanted out are already out.
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We’re seeing OGs who usually use Satstreet to sell BTC now funding their accounts to buy for the first time in a while.
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Family offices are buying and have been less concerned about short-term volatility.
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It’s eerily similar to past cycle corrections where short-term traders panic, while sophisticated investors add to their stacks.
Because once the U.S. starts acquiring Bitcoin, every other country will follow. The market is still trying to process what that means.
We’re at the very beginning of a nation-state arms race for Bitcoin, and people are still trying to trade the 4-hour chart.
When Trump’s team says they’re looking for budget-neutral ways to acquire more BTC, what does that really mean?
It means they have ways to get Bitcoin without creating a line item in the budget that taxpayers will scrutinize.
Here are some budget-neutral ways the U.S. government could acquire Bitcoin (BTC):
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Utilizing forfeited Bitcoin from criminal or civil asset forfeitures (this is their current/starting approach)
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The government could use Bitcoin already seized through legal actions, such as those from criminal cases (e.g., the Silk Road or Bitfinex hack seizures).
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Converting existing government reserve assets
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The government could convert other strategic reserve assets, such as gold, petroleum, natural gas, foreign currency, or critical minerals, into Bitcoin. For example, Senator Lummis suggested in November 2024 that the U.S. could convert some of its gold reserves into Bitcoin to fund the reserve. This would be budget-neutral because it reallocates existing assets rather than spending new public funds.
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Leveraging auction proceeds or existing funds without new expenditures
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The U.S. Marshals Service (USMS) has historically auctioned seized Bitcoin (e.g., the 144,336 BTC from Silk Road in 2013) and deposited the proceeds into the Treasury Forfeiture Fund. The government could strategically reinvest these proceeds or use them to acquire Bitcoin indirectly, ensuring no additional taxpayer money is spent.
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Partnerships or incentives with private sector or state initiatives
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Governments at the state level allocate a portion of existing funds (e.g., state treasuries) into Bitcoin. The federal government could explore similar budget-neutral partnerships or incentives with private entities or state programs, using existing resources rather than new appropriations.
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These Bit Bonds also sound like a cool idea (click to watch video).
The biggest players in the world have already been positioning for this. BlackRock didn’t just launch an ETF for fun. The biggest sovereign wealth funds on the planet didn’t start stacking Bitcoin by accident. The U.S. just validated Bitcoin as an official strategic reserve asset.
And yet, the market is acting like this is bearish.
Just like every cycle, we’re likely going to look back at this moment and laugh at how obvious it was.
Great prices never feel great at the time of entry, but after watching Saylor’s latest presentation, I found a way to buy more BTC.
