“Let me tell you something they don’t teach at Wharton.”
I was in my uncle’s London study, where oak shelves held rare books and a Patek Philippe catalog sat open on the table. On the screen behind him, a news alert flashed: “Tensions rise on India-Pakistan border.”
My second-gen NRI uncle didn’t even flinch.
“Every time there’s a war,” he said, “people panic. The ultra-rich? They reposition.”
He leaned forward.
“You don’t build wealth by predicting peace, you build it by preparing for chaos.” he said,
“Your Capital Deserves Wartime Intelligence.”
“I’ll share with you the most valuable lessons I’ve learned during my wealth creation journey, but remember, knowledge is only powerful when you put it into action.”
He told me 2 stories he witnessed during his lifetime:
1973
North America, Europe, and Asia of 1973 was marked by high inflation and recession. While most investors tried to flee, Warren Buffett scooped up high-quality businesses at discounted prices. He bought shares of Washington Post, GEICO, and others.
He kept his investment philosophy strong in turbulent times which was to seek undervalued companies with strong fundamentals and holding them for the long term. And just like that, he made loads of money!
1999
The 1999 India-Pakistan Kargil conflict, highlighted the strategic importance of robust infrastructure in border areas. The Indian government increased its funding for national security and infrastructure, which in turn, boosted industries like cement, steel, and telecommunications. And obviously, it benefitted the key players in those sectors.
I added 2 more from my history books:
1803
Nathan Rothschild reportedly received news of Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo before the British government did, thanks to his efficient network of couriers. Utilizing this early information, he made early investments in British government bonds, which increased in value once the victory became public knowledge.
Some estimates indicate he earned around £5,000 to £7,000!
1914
As World War I began, J.P. Morgan & Co. secured an agreement with the Bank of England to become the exclusive underwriter for British and French war bonds in the United States. This strategic move enabled the Allied powers (primarily France, Great Britain, Russia) to obtain crucial financial support from American investors, facilitating the procurement of essential war supplies and bolstering their military efforts against the enemy nations.
Steel, oil, rail, everything war touched, they turned into money.
“Hmm, it’s clear then! While most people see war as a loss and a handicap, some ultra-smart individuals see it as an opportunity to make a fortune.” I felt enlightened.
“Remember, war is still a misfortune”, he is serious.
I nodded realizing he is a philanthropist too.
So, saving your money and building your money during wartime crises are two very different mindsets.
Saving is defensive. It’s about preservation, caution, and survival.
Investment, on the other hand, is strategic. It means identifying chaos-proof opportunities, reallocating assets, and leaning into volatility with intelligence.
“To safeguard your capital and my legacy if the war occurs, you should always dedicate a portion of your earnings to invest in Safe-Haven Assets.”
Gold has historically served as reliable hedge against inflation and geopolitical instability.
“Second, you should establish a Cash Buffer. Keep some of your emergency savings in accounts that are insured, like those protected by the FDIC, to keep your money safe.”
“Lastly, The golden rule of diversification.”
Invest in international equities, REITs, commodities, and bonds, and diversify across sectors like technology, defense, healthcare, and luxury goods, to enhance portfolio resilience during tough times.
We got distracted by the news playing in the background:
India, now the world’s fourth-largest economy with a GDP of $4.19 trillion in 2025, and Pakistan, with a projected GDP of $357 billion, are facing escalating tensions that threaten to erupt into full-scale war.
The April 22 attack in Kashmir, which killed 26 tourists, has led to a series of retaliatory actions where both nations have expelled diplomats, suspended cooperation under the Indus Waters Treaty, and closed their airspace to each other.
Military buildups and aggressive posturing have further heightened the risk of direct confrontation and war.
We were aware of this much already!
“Let’s try another news channel”, my uncle commanded.
In the past, similar conflicts, for example, 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war have displaced over 886,000 people within Lebanon and forced 540,000 to flee to Syria. This was overwhelming for host countries and a disruption for many economies. In Ukraine, Russian strikes since 2022 have crippled energy infrastructure, reducing electricity capacity by two-thirds, while in Gaza, widespread destruction of hospitals and schools has deepened humanitarian crises.
“They are talking about Displacement and Infrastructure Damage. Conflicts ripple across borders, crippling infrastructure, displacing millions, and straining entire economies. ”
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea since late 2023 have cut container shipping by 90%, forcing over 2,000 ships to take the longer route around Africa, adding more time and fuel costs. The Russia-Ukraine war has also disrupted global supply chains, pushing up prices for fertilizers, food, and energy, and causing major delays in trade.
“Yes, Supply Chain Disruptions is a real thing during wars. The combined effects of displacement, infrastructure damage, and supply chain disruptions lead to severe economic downturns during such situations.”
I googled ‘Post-war recovery challenges for Ukraine and Lebanon’ and quoted from my Google results. “Lebanon’s GDP contracted by 7.1% in 2024, totaling a nearly 40% decline since 2019. Ukraine faces long-term challenges with extensive infrastructure damage and reduced productive capacities, hindering recovery efforts.”
The world is wondering if there will be an India and Pakistan war
and, what if it actually happens?
Some industries will boom!
Defense Industry: Because of an increased defense budget and military modernization efforts globally.
Precious Metals: Since investors will seek safe-haven assets during times of uncertainty.
Energy Sector: Due to fluctuations in oil prices and increased demand for energy security.
Cybersecurity: Due to escalating cyber threats and increased demand for advanced cybersecurity solutions.
Infrastructure & Construction: As a part of post-conflict reconstruction efforts to drive demand for construction materials and services, boosting the infrastructure sector.
Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals: For obvious reasons!
“Well we already discussed the sectors which will benefit from the war”
“We still didn’t discuss the WHO of it.”
I had guessed it right- It’s story time!
During World War I, a young Marwari entrepreneur, recognized the surge in demand for jute products due to the war effort. In 1919, he established the Birla Jute Manufacturing Co. Ltd. in Calcutta, challenging British dominance in the industry. Despite facing significant opposition from established European merchants, this guy’s determination, combined with the favorable conditions of World War I, led to the success of his venture.
This guy was none other than Ghanshyam Das Birla, the founder of the Birla Group, which stands as a global conglomerate with a consolidated market capitalization exceeding $100 billion. Today, this group operates in over 41 countries across sectors such as metals, cement, textiles, and financial services.
Three key aspects of his approach were:
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Seizing Wartime Opportunities: Recognizing the surge in demand for jute products due to the war, Birla capitalized on this need by establishing the Birla Jute Manufacturing Co. Ltd. in 1919, marking a significant entry into industrial manufacturing.
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Strategic bet on the Future: Anticipating the need for production facilities, Birla discreetly acquired land along the Hooghly River, positioning his mill advantageously for logistics and future expansion.
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Diversification and Expansion: Post-establishment, Birla expanded into various sectors, including cotton and sugar mills, Hindustan Motors in 1942, and later ventures like Grasim Industries (1948) and Hindalco (1958), solidifying the Birla Group’s diversified portfolio.
Now, more than anything, I was interested in who will be the Next Birla if this war happens at all!
So I asked, “Who can replicate Birla’s story in 2025?”
In the event of an India-Pakistan conflict, both large and small players across sectors including defense manufacturing, logistics, cybersecurity, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, FMCG, and energy can benefit.
But only that one player will be able to build a Birla-like legacy in these sectors who excels in meeting the heightened demand, ensuring robust supply chains, and delivering critical goods and services.
There is a golden rule of 3 from Birla’s story:
“Seize the opportunity, Bet on the Future, Diversify”, I interrupted excitedly.
“Bang on! So ask yourself,
Will you panic…
Or will you reposition?”
